Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 14.433229 16.475715 18.666245 21.185818 23.999208 27.039297 30.568162
2025-08-31 11.256131 14.008297 17.182216 21.094985 25.769335 31.153940 37.804422
2025-09-07 9.682276 12.738853 16.430924 21.185054 27.106759 34.199274 43.292059
2025-09-14 8.693918 12.018091 16.200891 21.795509 29.019820 37.965153 49.800809
2025-09-21 7.616952 11.012582 15.445739 21.579888 29.757382 40.182461 54.359406
2025-09-28 6.476403 9.782022 14.254504 20.647879 29.433157 40.945174 57.007225
2025-10-05 6.038073 9.463481 14.239283 21.254183 31.138211 44.385676 63.260262
2025-10-12 5.606811 9.103065 14.118550 21.676437 32.578237 47.499633 69.174740
2025-10-19 5.072934 8.532634 13.638733 21.530585 33.179689 49.454253 73.544114
2025-10-26 4.589913 7.989942 13.147737 21.315742 33.640587 51.197219 77.650241
2025-11-02 4.224235 7.595315 12.842692 21.343049 34.433317 53.417142 82.489750
2025-11-09 3.927190 7.282689 12.635218 21.493382 35.397873 55.902341 87.782176
2025-11-16 3.604069 6.903744 12.303586 21.440829 36.069277 58.014988 92.667637
2025-11-23 3.288627 6.508417 11.914239 21.266115 36.533433 59.828048 97.172687
2025-11-30 3.061802 6.246166 11.720783 21.386317 37.450160 62.340268 102.795243
2025-12-07 2.938840 6.160925 11.819103 21.991122 39.166171 66.141419 110.518044
2025-12-14 2.693772 5.823524 11.452084 21.777575 39.521030 67.810698 114.973790
2025-12-21 2.364129 5.290606 10.695730 20.836767 38.605323 67.407002 116.129878
2025-12-28 2.285161 5.244957 10.818861 21.448398 40.335881 71.316792 124.276754
2026-01-04 2.186105 5.149001 10.840136 21.873864 41.758777 74.767092 131.786663
2026-01-11 2.022280 4.902806 10.558846 21.726905 42.170295 76.553289 136.632610
2026-01-18 1.864306 4.653353 10.252008 21.510321 42.440644 78.101898 141.123479
2026-01-25 1.746681 4.480261 10.081685 21.537855 43.142889 80.395393 146.915517